Posted on: June 14, 2011 8:28 am
Edited on: June 14, 2011 8:28 am
I'd like to thank the over 300 people who read my previous entry on the Gold Cup knockout scenarios. It's nice to know that you care.
Enough with the mushy stuff, I'm here to preview the final two games of the Gold Cup group stages and how the knockout scenarios have changed. Thanks to blowout victories, Guatemala has qualified and is the first third place team to qualify and El Salvador's big win over Cuba has evened their GD and put them on the brink of qualification. This changes Canada's gameplan going in, where instead of needing a draw, they now need a win since they're behind El Salvador in GD.
CANADA (1-0-1, 3 pts, -1GD) vs. PANAMA (2-0-0, 6 pts, +2)
Canada advances with a win over Panama OR a draw and a Guadeloupe win over USA.
Panama has advanced and will win the group with a WIN or DRAW.
Canada hasn't scored on the run of play in the tournament, despite playing almost the entire game against Guadeloupe with a man advantage. Their sole goal is a De Rosario penalty. There are two ways that this game will play out and it all depends on Panama's lineup. Since Panama has clinched a quarterfinal berth, they could chose to rest their starting lineup and prepare for the knockout stages. Canada will be forced to go all out against a team that has little to play for and would be more than happy with a draw I think. If I'm Panama however, I want to avoid any chance of playing Mexico in the quarterfinals, where the 3rd place team from Group C would match-up. Panama has to think that the USA will defeat Guadeloupe, and probably by a few goals. In the relatively tight standings, slipping back to third with a loss would not be ideal.
Aside from the USA, Canada might be the team struggling the most on offense in this tournament and in this must-win situation I don't see them flying goals past a normally stout Panama defense, that could be playing for a draw.
UNITED STATES (1-0-1, 3 pts, +1GD) vs. GUADELOUPE (0-0-2, 0 pts, -2)
United States advances with WIN or DRAW vs. Guadeloupe OR LOSS by 1 goal and Panama WIN.
Guadeloupe advances ONLY with WIN by two goals AND Panama WIN.
The USA is looking to overcome its first ever group stage loss and they get group minnows Guadeloupe to heal their pain. If I'm Bob Bradley I do a few things to my lineup. First, I put Clint Dempsey at forward and bench Altidore and Agudelo. Second, I reshuffle the backline despite the fact that I think the group has played well so far. Oguchi Onyewu might not be ready to play yet, so that could mean John Bornstein on the outside in favor of Tim Ream (Bocanegra slides to the middle). I'd give Sasha Kljestan a start somewhere in the midfield as well. My projected lineup...
USA - (GK) Howard, Bornstein, Goodson, Bocanegra, Cherundolo, Donovan, Kljestan, Bradley, Adu, Wondo, Dempsey.
That seems a little more drastic than most, but I want to see two things from this lineup - energy and attacking. Adding Sasha and Freddy Adu gives this lineup both and allows Dempsey to spend more time in front of goal where he's been the most effective in the past few years. There is still a chance that the USA could win the group, meaning they would play one of the third-place teams. If not, a second place finish would pair them against Group B champions Jamaica, who just beat Honduras to go undefeated in their three group matches.
Overall the final matches of the group phase should at least be dramatic, The US can't wait around like it did in the first half against Panama and it must take the game to their opponents. The USA isn't known for their quick starts (rather their quick letdowns) but if there ever was a time for one it would be now. A solid 90 minutes here could at least give them a confidence boost heading into the knockout stages.
Posted on: June 7, 2011 7:43 am
Canada [CAN] – Rankings (FIFA – 75 / Elo – 59)
Guadeloupe [GPE] – Rankings (FIFA – N/A / Elo – 87)
Panama [PAN] – Rankings (FIFA – 68 / Elo – 57)
Panama is an interesting team, since they have never qualified for a World Cup and are only beginning to emerge as a regional power, going winless in “The Hex” during the Germany 2006 campaign. With a roster almost entirely of domestic and South American based players, their first team boasts some significant international experience but lacks depth as with many Central American sides whose first teams play almost all the games on the international slate. Expect to hear the names of Luis Tejada and Blas Perez associated with almost all the goal scoring, as the two strikers have a combined 28 goals in 93 caps.
United States [USA] – Rankings (FIFA – 22 / Elo – 27)
Standings (W-D-L, Pts, GD) Results
USA - (3-0-0, 9 pts, +6) PAN 3-1 GPE
PAN - (1-1-1, 4 pts, +1) USA 3-1 CAN
CAN - (1-1-1, 4 pts, -1) CAN 2-1 GPE
GPE - (0-0-3, 0 pts, -6) USA 2-1 PAN
CAN 1-1 PAN
USA 3-0 GPE
This group isn't as cut and dry as the rest, with the exception that the USA should win the group going away. I'm probably not giving Guadeloupe any justice, and I'm okay with that at the moment. I think Panama is the better attacking side than Canada so they'll have the edge in goals. I'll explain this when I do my knockout picks but my two third-place teams are going to be Canada and Guatemala (Group B). The Canada-Panama matchup is going to have so major implications in the tournament. With the USA likely already advancing, second place in the group will be up for grabs to the winner and a thrid-place tiebreaker as well, asuming neither side dropped points to Guadeloupe.